Oceanweather team of researchers beginning over 25 years
ago, pioneered the development and application of contemporary
techniques for the specification of surface winds and ocean
response in tropical cyclones. Those methods have been refined
and upgraded over the years and applied to all parts of
the globe affected by tropical cyclones in hindcast studies
to develop definitive extreme ocean response (waves, surge,
currents) criteria for design of offshore and coastal structures.
Oceanweather research staff have published over 10 papers
on this research area alone in the public domain and several
dozen technical reports on regional studies.
cyclone models include a primitive equation numerical
atmospheric boundary layer model specifically formulated
for translating tropical cyclones (Thompson and Cardone
1996), proven first, second and third generation spectral
wave hindcast models (Cardone et al., 1996) and a 2-D
hydrodynamic model (e.g. Cardone and Grant, 1994). These
models have been applied recently in major offshore
industry sponsored joint industry projects (JIPs) to
develop extreme criteria associated with tropical cyclones
in the northern Gulf of Mexico, South China Sea, Campeche
Bay (e.g Cardone and Ramos 1998), Andaman Sea, Caribbean
Sea, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. A hallmark of these
studies is the meticulous attention paid to specification
of the time and space evolution of marine surface wind
field in historical cyclones utilizing all available
surface synoptic data, inferences from satellite imagery
and scatterometer winds, meteorological data from reconnaissance
and research aircraft. The wind analysis methodology
is described most recently by Cox and Cardone (2000).
models are general enough to be applied to tropical cyclones
in any part of the world. The increased availability of
wind and wave measurements in intense cyclones has allowed
the models to be validated over a wide dynamic range in
basins such as Arabian Sea, South China Sea, Tasman Sea,
Northwest Australia, Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere. The success
of the models results from their general formulation, which
unlike empirical or parametric methods, makes them applicable
worldwide since the basic structure of tropical cyclones
are governed by a general set of thermodynamic and dynamic
1995 OWI has operated its own advanced tropical cyclone
forecasting system with a unique probabilistic component
to aid decision makers. This system, known as CYCLOPS, employs
models with fine grid systems to accurately resolve tropical
cyclones and other smaller scale weather systems. CYCLOPS
provides not only highly accurate day-day forecasts but
also a unique probabilistic approach to support emergency
response required in the face of a cyclone (typhoon, hurricane)
threat, such as the evacuation decision. The structure and
performance of this system are described in the open literature
by Corona et al. (1996).
Cardone, V. J. and C. K. Grant. Southeast Asia Meteorological
and oceanographic hindcast study (SEAMOS). OSEA 94132. 10th
Offshore Southeast Asia Conference, 6-9 December, 1994.
Thompson, E. F. and V. J. Cardone. Practical modeling of
hurricane surface wind fields. ASCE J. of Waterway, Port,
Coastal and Ocean Engineering. 122, 4, 195-205.
Corona, E.N, R. D. Lynch, D. Riffe, V. J. Cardone, A. T.Cox.
and H. Chen. Typhoon Emergency Response Planning for the
South China Sea. OTC 8117. Offshore Technology Conference.
6-9 May, 1966, Houston Texas, 855-868.
Cardone, V. J., R. E. Jensen, D. T. Resio, V. R. Swail and
A. T. Cox. Evaluation of contemporary ocean wave models
in rare extreme events: Halloween storm of October, 1991;
Storm of the century of March, 1993. J. of Atmos. And Ocean.
Tech., 13, 198-230.
Cardone, V. J. and R. Ramos. Wave, wind and current characteristics
of Bay of Campeche. Offshore Technology Conference , Houston,
TX 4-7 May, 1997. Paper OTC 8697, 143-155.
Cox, A. T. and V. J. Cardone. Operational system for the
prediction of tropical cyclone generated winds and waves.
6th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting,
November 6-10, 2000, Monterey, CA.