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The Oceanweather team of researchers beginning over 25 years ago, pioneered the development and application of contemporary techniques for the specification of surface winds and ocean response in tropical cyclones. Those methods have been refined and upgraded over the years and applied to all parts of the globe affected by tropical cyclones in hindcast studies to develop definitive extreme ocean response (waves, surge, currents) criteria for design of offshore and coastal structures. Oceanweather research staff have published over 10 papers on this research area alone in the public domain and several dozen technical reports on regional studies.

The cyclone models include a primitive equation numerical atmospheric boundary layer model specifically formulated for translating tropical cyclones (Thompson and Cardone 1996), proven first, second and third generation spectral wave hindcast models (Cardone et al., 1996) and a 2-D hydrodynamic model (e.g. Cardone and Grant, 1994). These models have been applied recently in major offshore industry sponsored joint industry projects (JIPs) to develop extreme criteria associated with tropical cyclones in the northern Gulf of Mexico, South China Sea, Campeche Bay (e.g Cardone and Ramos 1998), Andaman Sea, Caribbean Sea, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. A hallmark of these studies is the meticulous attention paid to specification of the time and space evolution of marine surface wind field in historical cyclones utilizing all available surface synoptic data, inferences from satellite imagery and scatterometer winds, meteorological data from reconnaissance and research aircraft. The wind analysis methodology is described most recently by Cox and Cardone (2000).

Oceanweather's models are general enough to be applied to tropical cyclones in any part of the world. The increased availability of wind and wave measurements in intense cyclones has allowed the models to be validated over a wide dynamic range in basins such as Arabian Sea, South China Sea, Tasman Sea, Northwest Australia, Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere. The success of the models results from their general formulation, which unlike empirical or parametric methods, makes them applicable worldwide since the basic structure of tropical cyclones are governed by a general set of thermodynamic and dynamic constraints.

Since 1995 OWI has operated its own advanced tropical cyclone forecasting system with a unique probabilistic component to aid decision makers. This system, known as CYCLOPS, employs models with fine grid systems to accurately resolve tropical cyclones and other smaller scale weather systems. CYCLOPS provides not only highly accurate day-day forecasts but also a unique probabilistic approach to support emergency response required in the face of a cyclone (typhoon, hurricane) threat, such as the evacuation decision. The structure and performance of this system are described in the open literature by Corona et al. (1996).

REFERENCES

1994. Cardone, V. J. and C. K. Grant. Southeast Asia Meteorological and oceanographic hindcast study (SEAMOS). OSEA 94132. 10th Offshore Southeast Asia Conference, 6-9 December, 1994.

1996 Thompson, E. F. and V. J. Cardone. Practical modeling of hurricane surface wind fields. ASCE J. of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering. 122, 4, 195-205.

1996 Corona, E.N, R. D. Lynch, D. Riffe, V. J. Cardone, A. T.Cox. and H. Chen. Typhoon Emergency Response Planning for the South China Sea. OTC 8117. Offshore Technology Conference. 6-9 May, 1966, Houston Texas, 855-868.

1996 Cardone, V. J., R. E. Jensen, D. T. Resio, V. R. Swail and A. T. Cox. Evaluation of contemporary ocean wave models in rare extreme events: Halloween storm of October, 1991; Storm of the century of March, 1993. J. of Atmos. And Ocean. Tech., 13, 198-230.

1998 Cardone, V. J. and R. Ramos. Wave, wind and current characteristics of Bay of Campeche. Offshore Technology Conference , Houston, TX 4-7 May, 1997. Paper OTC 8697, 143-155.

2000 Cox, A. T. and V. J. Cardone. Operational system for the prediction of tropical cyclone generated winds and waves. 6th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting, November 6-10, 2000, Monterey, CA.

 


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